One of the top agenda's items for world
organizations, the United nations, and the G7 nations in the twentieth
century is to find alternative economical energy sources that
would put a stop to pollution control the quality of air we breathe.
Work is advancing in this field in a feverish rapid pace and scientists
around the world are predicting solutions in place within forty
to fifty years.
Solutions in place means that the technology
is not only available but also producing the expected results
and totally replacing oil as the only cheap source of energy.
The prospect for this taking shape and soon taking place must
make countries who totally depend on the export of oil as their
only source of income redirect their policies and plan to deal
with this technology in the appropriate fashion.
Attention to this matter has already
started to become a topic of discussion in the energy circles
of affected countries. Some countries have already implemented
national goals and tasks to find alternative incomes. Countries
such as United Arab Emirates have discovered that trade and business
are keys to dependence on oil. The country's laws have changed
and are changing constantly to adapt to more challenging demands
by the business community at large. It is already considered that
Dubai is the Hong Kong of the Middle East. When oil runs out or
is no longer needed, Dubai and Abu Dhabi will survive in this
new world that does not need oil anymore.
What is happening in Saudi Arabia and
what is the country doing about these new challenges is what interests
Up to now, Saudi Arabia with an absolute
monarchy and a constitution that has just been implemented giving
rise to a new parliamentary puppet system is no where near even
understanding the potential threats of the Renewable Energy Sources.
The country is still mired in a feudal system that rewards the
richest individual not on the basis of his skills as a provider
and a taker from the economy of the country but rather as a corrupt
person who has reached his riches through understanding the flows
of the system and taking advantage of those flaws. Saudi Arabia
has many billionaires more so than usual considering it is a country
that has a GDP of $_____ in 1994 and a per capita income of $4,000
a year. These billionaires got rich mostly by being the wrong
people doing the wrong thing at the right time. The wrong people
because the majority of them would never survive in a free economy
system such as found in the US or England. The wrong thing because
most likely it is based on paying commissions rather than building
something useful and making a profit from it. The right time because
of the oil boom that has taken place during the middle seventies.
Saudi Arabia today is very far from
preparing for the inevitable coming of new energy sources that
will diminish its importance and security in the middle of the
next century. The government has not even started embarking on
this journey. Everyone is busy enriching themselves and the royal
family cares about short term results to the detriment of any
long term strategy. Their number one preoccupation is their security,
their number two preoccupation is amassing a vast wealth that
will bring about their security, and their third preoccupation
is Saudi Arabia. We have seen Saudi Arabia under their rule falter
and almost disintegrate economically because of their priority.
Instead of saving $40 billion, they are spending $40 billion on
arms from England that most likely will be obsolete and inoperable
given the culture of the personnel and the harsh weather the country
enjoys. What is the logical reason to spend that money. It is
very simple. Saudi Arabia is buying protection and elongating
their rule by promising long term contracts to defense companies
who through their influence assure the ruling family continuance
hold onto power. In the process, secret bank accounts are opened
constantly with millions being deposited for those American and
British executives who, prior to retiring, play lobbyists for
the al-Saud family.
The most compelling of any scenario
is the following if Saudi Arabia does not reform, re-write its
rules and regulations to open the society, and embarks on a new
way of doing business where corruption is as severely punished
as murder. Standing up to corruption does not mean changing the
Islamic culture of the country nor its symbolic importance as
the Guardian of the Two Holy Mosques, something that al-Saud have
played against the background of the noise expressed by dissident
groups such as CACSA and reformists that see a great deal of progress
in a more open Saudi Arabia. An open Saudi Arabia provides accountability
which has been resisted by al-Saud for fear of losing control
over their corrupt ways and habits.
In the year 2037, oil is very important
as a regional weapon rather than an international one. All the
countries of the Middle East will have to rely on oil while the
rest of the developed countries will have developed alternatives
that are cheaper and cleaner than oil.
The Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia
will become a bastion of enterpreneurship controlled by Shiite
Muslims who will build that area the way Lebanese Shiite built
West Africa. Their allegiance will be to Iran with milder political
jostling and attitudes that are as important to developed nations
as Ethiopia is today. They will refuse to deal with Riyadh or
the Wahabbists in any political framework.
Riyadh will die. The high costs of maintenance
and the low income experienced by lack of oil exports will kill
that city which has no water sources to keep it alive. The Wahabbists
will become outcasts because of the mismanagement of the country
by al-saud and shall remain in that area living in tents the way
they were used to. The wealthy al-Saud clan will be disbursed
all over the world and live off their pilfering during the twentieth
century. The poorer ones will either stay or go off to poorer
The Western Province in Saudi Arabia will fall back into the hands of the Hashemites who will govern it with greater equality and respect than al-Saud ever had. Land around Makkah will be donated to religious charitable organizations and used to service Islam and God rather than leave it as palaces for al-Saud. Jeddah will become a great merchant city with banking and a trade center serving Africa and the Levant. It will work with Yemen to create a trading powerful corridor essential to the whole region. The whole country will shrink in size and importance. Allegiances will follow historical ties. An anti Abdul Aziz sysndrome that will see that Saudi Arabia is truncated and dispersed into oblivion.