SAUDI ARABIA : in the year 2037

One of the top agenda's items for world organizations, the United nations, and the G7 nations in the twentieth century is to find alternative economical energy sources that would put a stop to pollution control the quality of air we breathe. Work is advancing in this field in a feverish rapid pace and scientists around the world are predicting solutions in place within forty to fifty years.

Solutions in place means that the technology is not only available but also producing the expected results and totally replacing oil as the only cheap source of energy. The prospect for this taking shape and soon taking place must make countries who totally depend on the export of oil as their only source of income redirect their policies and plan to deal with this technology in the appropriate fashion.

Attention to this matter has already started to become a topic of discussion in the energy circles of affected countries. Some countries have already implemented national goals and tasks to find alternative incomes. Countries such as United Arab Emirates have discovered that trade and business are keys to dependence on oil. The country's laws have changed and are changing constantly to adapt to more challenging demands by the business community at large. It is already considered that Dubai is the Hong Kong of the Middle East. When oil runs out or is no longer needed, Dubai and Abu Dhabi will survive in this new world that does not need oil anymore.

What is happening in Saudi Arabia and what is the country doing about these new challenges is what interests us here.

Up to now, Saudi Arabia with an absolute monarchy and a constitution that has just been implemented giving rise to a new parliamentary puppet system is no where near even understanding the potential threats of the Renewable Energy Sources. The country is still mired in a feudal system that rewards the richest individual not on the basis of his skills as a provider and a taker from the economy of the country but rather as a corrupt person who has reached his riches through understanding the flows of the system and taking advantage of those flaws. Saudi Arabia has many billionaires more so than usual considering it is a country that has a GDP of $_____ in 1994 and a per capita income of $4,000 a year. These billionaires got rich mostly by being the wrong people doing the wrong thing at the right time. The wrong people because the majority of them would never survive in a free economy system such as found in the US or England. The wrong thing because most likely it is based on paying commissions rather than building something useful and making a profit from it. The right time because of the oil boom that has taken place during the middle seventies.

Saudi Arabia today is very far from preparing for the inevitable coming of new energy sources that will diminish its importance and security in the middle of the next century. The government has not even started embarking on this journey. Everyone is busy enriching themselves and the royal family cares about short term results to the detriment of any long term strategy. Their number one preoccupation is their security, their number two preoccupation is amassing a vast wealth that will bring about their security, and their third preoccupation is Saudi Arabia. We have seen Saudi Arabia under their rule falter and almost disintegrate economically because of their priority. Instead of saving $40 billion, they are spending $40 billion on arms from England that most likely will be obsolete and inoperable given the culture of the personnel and the harsh weather the country enjoys. What is the logical reason to spend that money. It is very simple. Saudi Arabia is buying protection and elongating their rule by promising long term contracts to defense companies who through their influence assure the ruling family continuance hold onto power. In the process, secret bank accounts are opened constantly with millions being deposited for those American and British executives who, prior to retiring, play lobbyists for the al-Saud family.


The most compelling of any scenario is the following if Saudi Arabia does not reform, re-write its rules and regulations to open the society, and embarks on a new way of doing business where corruption is as severely punished as murder. Standing up to corruption does not mean changing the Islamic culture of the country nor its symbolic importance as the Guardian of the Two Holy Mosques, something that al-Saud have played against the background of the noise expressed by dissident groups such as CACSA and reformists that see a great deal of progress in a more open Saudi Arabia. An open Saudi Arabia provides accountability which has been resisted by al-Saud for fear of losing control over their corrupt ways and habits.

In the year 2037, oil is very important as a regional weapon rather than an international one. All the countries of the Middle East will have to rely on oil while the rest of the developed countries will have developed alternatives that are cheaper and cleaner than oil.

The Eastern Province

The Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia will become a bastion of enterpreneurship controlled by Shiite Muslims who will build that area the way Lebanese Shiite built West Africa. Their allegiance will be to Iran with milder political jostling and attitudes that are as important to developed nations as Ethiopia is today. They will refuse to deal with Riyadh or the Wahabbists in any political framework.

The Najd Province

Riyadh will die. The high costs of maintenance and the low income experienced by lack of oil exports will kill that city which has no water sources to keep it alive. The Wahabbists will become outcasts because of the mismanagement of the country by al-saud and shall remain in that area living in tents the way they were used to. The wealthy al-Saud clan will be disbursed all over the world and live off their pilfering during the twentieth century. The poorer ones will either stay or go off to poorer countries.

The Western Province

The Western Province in Saudi Arabia will fall back into the hands of the Hashemites who will govern it with greater equality and respect than al-Saud ever had. Land around Makkah will be donated to religious charitable organizations and used to service Islam and God rather than leave it as palaces for al-Saud. Jeddah will become a great merchant city with banking and a trade center serving Africa and the Levant. It will work with Yemen to create a trading powerful corridor essential to the whole region. The whole country will shrink in size and importance. Allegiances will follow historical ties. An anti Abdul Aziz sysndrome that will see that Saudi Arabia is truncated and dispersed into oblivion.